There have been a number of developments over the past couple of months that should be of concern and interest to those who care about events in Sudan.
First, the Sudan Revolutionary Forces, working with the National Consensus Forces, created the New Dawn Charter. The New Dawn Charter is a document that declares the intentions of the SRF and NCF to work together to build a western style government with freedoms and liberties, including separation of church and state, in the aftermath of the fall of the Khartoum Regime. While it would be reasonable to assume that every party involved does not necessarily support all of the details of the New Dawn Charter, some of the parties being Communist, Baathist, or religiously oriented, the crux of the document is that the parties involved will work together to create a stable and healthy Sudan should the regime fall. This is a hopeful occurrence. Gibriel Ibrahim Mohamed, the Chairperson of the Justice and Equality Movement, wrote a good editorial explaining the purpose of the Charter which may be found here.
Second, fighting along the Sudan – South Sudan border continues and the two nations do not appear to be able to move forward in settling their disputes. Every week, there are villages bombed and civilians killed by Sudan’s armed forces.
Third, the humanitarian situation in South Kordofan and Blue Nile is deteriorating. What aid was able to be brought in prior to onset of the rainy season is rapidly diminishing. Food, clean water, and medicine are all in extremely short supply.
Fourth, there is a strengthening relationship between Sudan, Iran, Syria, Egypt, Hizballah and Hamas that is being developed by the Iranian government. Iran had already been manufacturing weapons in Khartoum for Hizballah and Hamas to use against Israel, but now seeks to use Sudan as a base of operations in the Red Sea as such. We may see a significantly increased Iranian military presence in Port Sudan in the coming months.
Fifth, there seems to be little or no political will to enforce sanctions against the government of Sudan. Germany recently held a conference promoting investment in Sudan. More importantly, the United States has been pressuring South Sudan to restart the flow of oil, which provide a significant income stream and undermine the affect of sanctions. This certainly is also aimed at helping the South Sudanese economy, but it will help Sudan as well.